2026: Happy Clients, Happy Dogs - Off-Market Listings

 

Now that the holiday parties are over, I bring you good news and bad news.

 

Good news: The 2026 real estate outlook looks feisty.

 

Bad news: Velvet monkeys are on the loose in Louisiana. Also, the Commander in Chief is still in the White House. So, balance.

 

A few fun things have happened since last month:

 

 

Last Friday, my clients (pictured above) closed escrow on a home in North Berkeley that never hit the market. To be clear: most people didn't miss it - they never had the opportunity to see it. The house was shown to exactly one party. Us. 

 

I heard about the opportunity through a Red Oak colleague, and while the seller's son was busy hauling a literal truckload of Playboy magazines out of his dad's house (this is not a metaphor), we got a private preview -- of the house, not the magazines. 

 

What most people would have focused on - spiderwebs on the walls, an odd kitchen layout, and a wood chipper in the yard (very Fargo) - my clients, who work in construction and design, saw as pure potential. We submitted a fair, clean offer that allowed the seller's son to focus on his dad's medical care, and it was accepted within 12 hours.

 

Now my clients are transforming the property into their dream home - and may have landed the deal of the century in desirable North Berkeley. In hindsight, perhaps we should've negotiated for a few centerfolds. For history.

 

 

Thirty-year fixed rates are hovering just under 6% nationally - the lowest since late 2022. Buyers: it's time to shop till you drop. Sellers: Yes, the crowds are back. Hydrate and jump into the fray.

 

 

Even if you're not in the market for a 6-bedroom, 3-bath view house, come visit me this weekend at 6227 Wood Drive. Tour guests keep mentioning the home's unique flow, cheerful demeanor, unusually large kitchen, spacious bedrooms, views from nearly every room, and its modest, do n't-judge-me street presence. More importantly, I will be handing out gummy bears and cookies. This feels relevant.

 

 

As I prep for a website refresh, I've been doing a little brand soul-searching. Here's where I've landed so far - feedback welcome:

 

• Brand essence: Engaging · Unconventional · Knowledgeable (what about funny?)

• What clients experience: They feel seen, challenged, and intellectually energized - not sold to. (I'll show you my hip hop dances.)

• Core value: Helping people rethink what's actually possible. (Like an off-market sale.)

 

If you know anyone considering buying, selling, or investing in real estate, I value (and deeply appreciate) your referrals.

 

With gratitude,

 

P.S. Follow me on Instagram, you'll laugh. 

 

 

This year marks 50 years of Red Oak serving the East Bay. Five decades of genuine commitment to the communities we call home and the neighborhoods we serve. Five decades of helping generations of families navigate one of the country's most complex real estate markets.

 

As the East Bay's largest independent brokerage, we've never been just another real estate company. We've built our reputation on deep local expertise, highly trained agents, and a full support team - helping to guide our neighbors through the biggest financial decisions of their lives.

 

It's what we've been doing for 50 years. And it's what we'll keep doing for the next 50.

 

 

The Inner East Bay market in Q4 2025 continued to strike a balance as expanded inventory and moderated demand continued to shift leverage toward buyers. The median single-family home price fell 4% year-over-year to $909,000, while cancellation rates hit 35% - the highest in five years - signaling a fundamental reset from pandemic-era pricing. Despite these headwinds, the Inner East Bay maintains its position as the Bay Area's strongest value proposition for buyers, with median prices well below San Francisco ($1.85M, +12%), Marin ($1.57M, -7%), and the Peninsula ($1.82M, flat).

 

 

Oakland faced repeated challenges with median prices staying relatively flat at $880,000 and a 9% volume decline, with just over 500 transactions. Days on market dropped slightly from 38 to 34 indicating continued buyer reluctance despite modest price declines. Well-priced homes in Rockridge and Temescal still attract multiple offers, but anything requiring serious upgrades tends to sit.

 

Berkeley continues to be one of the most resilient and desirable cities in the Inner East Bay with median prices reaching $1.60M (up 7% YOY) on 8% volume growth. At 23 days on market with sustained demand, Berkeley's university ecosystem creates advantages that insulate it from regional weakness.

 

Albany also stayed strong with an average of just 17 days on market and median prices at $1.38M (up 5%), demonstrating market equilibrium between desirability and affordability. Albany's homes have appreciated an average of 58% over the past decade, reiterating the power of top tier schools, low crime and BART access.

 

El Cerrito experienced Q4's most dramatic repricing, falling to $1.14M (down 13% YOY) after Q3's 27% surge. Paradoxically, volume jumped 15% and days on market compressed to 22, proving robust demand exists at slightly corrected prices.

 

San Leandro stabilized after Q3 with 12% volume growth and just 2% price decline to $850,000, positioning it as a continued value alternative to Oakland.

 

Richmond emerged as a volume leader with 18% growth despite homes sitting for an average of 39 days on market - the slowest in the region - as buyers discovered median prices around $660,000 within reach of San Francisco commutes and some stunning Bay views.

 

 

Oakland's fastest-selling market was Temescal with homes selling in an average of 14 days, 25% above listing prices. While homes in the very popular Rockridge neighborhood took longer to sell (on average 26 days), competition remained high with the average paid over list price equaling 33% in the fourth quarter. Montclair homes took longer to sell at a 34 day average, prices falling 9% year over year; however, buyers were still willing to pay an average of 7% over the list price for this Oakland location. 

 

Berkeley's neighborhoods remained in high demand, notably Thousand Oaks which experienced an average sale of 45% over the list price, South Berkeley with 24%, and Central Berkeley with 21% over list. Thousand Oaks also saw the fastest sales at an average of 14 days between listing date to pending. Red Oak's internal data reveals an average of 3.5 offers on every Berkeley transaction in 2025, with unique properties garnishing up to 17 offers! Despite the rest of the region moving slowly toward a more balanced market, some might say even tipping towards the buyers favor in Q4, the city of Berkeley remains the most notable outlier.

 

The condo market in the Inner East Bay continued to soften into Q4 2025 with median prices falling 11% to $495,000 and an astounding 38% condo cancellation rate. Adams Point plunged 32% to $400K, and Jack London Square dropped 30% to $439K. Buyers looking for a deal scooped up more condos in Q4 2025 than in Q4 2024 however, purchasing 217 condominiums in Q4 versus 175 in Q4 2024. Remote work permanence, rising HOA fees, supply overhang, and the Oakland crime stigma converged to greatly impact condo values, especially in more urban areas. Buyers looking for opportunities, including first-time buyers who currently rent, will find Oakland to be a bargain in 2026 compared with years' past.

 

 

In Q4 2025, 34% of single family homes required a price reduction to sell versus 37% in Q4 2024. Fewer homes sold above list across all price ranges, with luxury ($3M+) competitiveness falling from 28% to 21%. For sellers, more realistic pricing can help to avoid price reductions and cancellations. For buyers, maximum leverage exists in Oakland neighborhoods beyond Rockridge/Temescal. Richmond, Berkeley and Albany neighborhoods remain competitive yet within reach compared to pandemic extremes. Deep neighborhood expertise is now more important than ever when it comes to both pricing and purchasing success.

 

 

 

December 2025 showed some clear market divergence as buyers prioritized value and premium school districts.

 

Premium enclaves (Piedmont, Berkeley, Lamorinda) and emerging value markets (Pinole, San Lorenzo, Richmond) captured greater volume than other cities. San Leandro, Hayward, and more urban areas, like Oakland, continued to struggle. Oakland saw an overall 16% drop in the number of single family home sales with prices dropping 6% to a median sales price of $775K, while Berkeley rose 19% with 5% price appreciation to a median price of $1.4M, maintaining their Inner East Bay dominance.

 

Richmond gained 40% (30 to 42 homes) and Lamorinda grew 27% (33 to 42 homes), confirming demand for both value markets and premium neighborhoods. San Leandro saw sales falling from 42 to 30 homes year over year despite only a 2% price decline. It's also important to note that while some areas seem to have experienced significant growth, like Piedmont and Pinole, based on the overall number of transactions that occurred in December, these cities represent a very small sampling of the overall data.

 

6227 Wood Dr
Oakland
Active | Listing

 

 

 

1079 Keith Ave
Berkeley
Sold | Represented Buyer

 

 

7415 Circle Hill Dr
Oakland
Sold | Represented Buyer

 

 

1801 Gouldin Rd
Oakland
Sold | Represented Buyer

 

 

2578 Ridge Crest CT.
Castro Valley
Sold | Represented Buyer

 

Since mid-December, the mortgage market has been adjusting to a shift in Federal Reserve policy alongside new government intervention.

 

While the Fed cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points last month, the most significant recent development occurred on January 8, 2026. The Administration directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS), a move that had an immediate impact on the bond market.

 

Mortgage rates are influenced not only by the Federal Reserve, but also by the "spread" the price difference between U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities. This MBS purchase program is a technical policy tool designed to tighten that spread. Markets reacted quickly, with mortgage rates dipping just below the 6% level for the first time in several months.

 

While this policy provides meaningful near-term relief, we are viewing it as a period of stabilization rather than a permanent reset. The durability of lower rates will depend on upcoming economic and inflation data.

 

For homeowners who purchased in the last few years at rates in the mid-to-high 6% range, conditions are improving but they remain data-dependent.

 

If you bought a home within the past three years, this may be a good time for a mortgage checkup to see whether a refinance opportunity is emerging. To see if you qualify for a refinance to a lower interest rate, please contact Faramarz

 

Moeen-Ziai at CrossCountry Mortgage - [email protected] or 415.377.1147

 

 

One of our favorite things about where we live and work is the sense of community and we're always looking for small ways to nurture it.

 

That's why Red Oak Realty recently added Little Libraries outside our El Cerrito and Berkeley offices. Inspired by the global Little Free Library movement, these cozy, walk-up book boxes are open to everyone. The idea is simple: take a book or leave one for others to enjoy.

 

They've already become sweet little gathering points sparking conversations, sharing stories, and creating everyday moments of connection. It's a small gesture, but one that reflects Red Oak's commitment to trust, curiosity, and local engagement.

 

If you're nearby, we hope you'll check them out and maybe even add a favorite read of your own.

 

 

 

As more East Bay homeowners embrace electric vehicles for a cleaner commute, a Level 2 (240V) charger at home is the most convenient way to keep your car ready to go, offering a full charge overnight.

 

The first step is calling a licensed electrician to assess your home's main electrical panel (reach out for a great electrician recommendation). This ensures the panel can safely handle the new, dedicated 240V circuit, especially since older homes with 100-amp panels might require an upgrade for safety and code compliance. Securing the necessary electrical permits from your local building department is worth considering and your electrician can usually handle this, ensuring a smooth installation and final inspection.

 

The total estimated cost typically ranges from $1,100 to $3,600. This covers the charger hardware itself, around $300-$600, and installation labor, materials, and potential panel upgrades that range from $800-$3,000 (depending on complexity). The good news is that these costs can be significantly offset by great financial incentives! You can take advantage of the Federal Tax Credit, which offers up to $1,000 back, and local utility rebates like those from PG&E's Residential Charging Solutions, which can cover equipment costs. Additional incentives from municipal utilities, such as Alameda Municipal Power, can provide up to $500 more! Later, when it comes to the sale of your home, this upgrade is a competitive advantage and often appreciated by buyers in our environmentally conscious and tech-forward community.

 

 

When a local favorite closes its doors, it often feels like the end of an era. That's exactly how many felt when Annie's Annuals & Perennials closed in October 2024 after decades of being a go-to destination for extraordinary plants.

 

But this story didn't end there.

 

Longtime members of the Annie's team stepped in to carry the legacy forward, launching Curious Flora Nursery a fresh chapter rooted in deep horticultural expertise and passion. Today, Curious Flora offers an exceptional selection of California native plants alongside rare and unique varieties from diverse climates around the world. It's an inspiring reminder that even when one chapter ends, something new can bloom.

 

740 Market Avenue, Richmond · Open every day 9AM-4PM · Follow on Instagram @curiousfloranursery · curiousflora.com